Posted inN2 Grammar

Mastering 恐らく (Osoraku): Expressing High Probability in Japanese (JLPT N2)

Posted inN2 Grammar
Japanese Grammar Template
Meaning & Usage

✨ Basic Meaning

恐らく (osoraku) means “probably,” “likely,” or “perhaps.” It is an adverb used to express a strong likelihood or high degree of probability regarding an event or situation, often based on a reasonable inference or available information.

🎯 Primary Function

To convey a high degree of probability or presumption, stronger than 多分 (tabun) but less certain than きっと (kitto). It suggests that there is good reason to believe something will happen or is true, even if not 100% confirmed.

📋 Grammar Structure

恐らく (osoraku) is an adverb, so it does not conjugate. It typically precedes the verb, adjective, or noun phrase it modifies. It is very frequently followed by でしょう (deshou) or だろう (darou) to express conjecture or presumption. Structure: 恐らく + [Verb (plain form)] + でしょう/だろう 恐らく + [い-Adjective (plain form)] + でしょう/だろう 恐らく + [な-Adjective (stem)] + でしょう/だろう 恐らく + [Noun] + でしょう/だろう

🎭 Usage Contexts

🏢 Formal Situations

Frequently used in formal contexts such as news reports, academic papers, business presentations, and official announcements, where a well-reasoned estimation is required.

😊 Informal Situations

Less common in very casual, everyday conversation, where 多分 (tabun) might be more natural. However, it can be used in informal settings when the speaker wants to convey a more considered or objective probability.

✍️ Written Language

Very common in written Japanese, appearing in various types of texts from newspapers and magazines to novels and essays.

🗣️ Spoken Language

Used in spoken Japanese, especially when delivering a somewhat formal or thoughtful prediction or deduction. It sounds more intellectual or analytical than simply 多分.

💡 Common Applications

Predicting future events or outcomes
Used to express a strong likelihood about something that will happen.
Example: 恐らく明日は雨が降るでしょう。 (It will probably rain tomorrow.)
Making logical deductions or presumptions
Used when drawing a conclusion based on existing evidence or reasoning.
Example: 彼が会議に来なかったのは、恐らく体調が悪いからだろう。 (The reason he didn’t come to the meeting is probably because he’s not feeling well.)
Expressing a strong possibility with a polite nuance
Often paired with でしょう/だろう to soften the assertion or add a degree of politeness, especially in formal settings.
Example: この計画は恐らく成功するでしょう。 (This plan will likely succeed.)
📊
Frequency
Moderate to high for advanced learners (JLPT N2). It is an essential adverb for expressing nuanced probability.
🎚️
Difficulty
Medium. The difficulty lies in distinguishing its nuance from similar adverbs like 多分, きっと, and in understanding its appropriate usage contexts.
Example Sentences
恐らく彼はそのニュースを知らないだろう。
He probably doesn’t know that news.
このプロジェクトは恐らく来月には完了するでしょう。
This project will probably be completed next month.
渋滞しているので、恐らく約束の時間には間に合わないでしょう。
Since there’s traffic, I probably won’t make it on time for our appointment.
Notes & Nuances

📌 Important Points

Higher Degree of Certainty than 多分
While both mean “probably,” 恐らく suggests a higher degree of probability based on logical inference or evidence, making it sound more objective and reasoned than 多分 (tabun), which can be more subjective or casual.
Example: 多分来る (Maybe he’ll come – casual, less certainty) vs. 恐らく来るだろう (He’ll probably come – more reasoned, higher certainty).
Commonly Used with でしょう/だろう
恐らく is almost always followed by でしょう (deshou) or だろう (darou) to express conjecture or presumption. Using it without these forms sounds abrupt or incomplete in many contexts.
Example: 恐らく成功するでしょう。 (It will probably succeed.)

⚠️ Common Mistakes

❌ Using 恐らく in overly casual conversation without でしょう/だろう
✅ Replace with 多分 or add でしょう/だろう to make it sound more natural and appropriate for casual settings, or use 恐らく in situations where a more considered opinion is appropriate.
恐らく sounds a bit formal or academic. In very casual contexts, 多分 is usually preferred. If using 恐らく, pairing it with でしょう/だろう makes it less blunt.
❌ Confusing its certainty level with きっと
✅ Remember that 恐らく is a high probability, while きっと is near certainty (surely, definitely).
While both convey certainty, きっと implies the speaker’s strong conviction or hope for something to happen, almost guaranteeing it. 恐らく is more about objective probability.

🏛️ Cultural Context

Politeness Level: Generally neutral to slightly formal. When combined with でしょう, it becomes polite. It is suitable for most situations requiring a careful expression of probability.
Social Situations: Appropriate in business settings, news reporting, academic discussions, or when providing a thoughtful response to a question. Less common in very light, informal chat among close friends.
Regional Variations: No significant regional variations in its meaning or usage. It is standard Japanese.

🔍 Subtle Differences

恐らく (osoraku) vs. 多分 (tabun)
恐らく implies a stronger, more reasoned probability (e.g., based on evidence or logical deduction). 多分 is a more general, often casual “probably” or “maybe,” indicating a weaker or more subjective likelihood.
When to use: Use 恐らく when you have a good reason or basis for your estimation and want to convey a higher degree of certainty. Use 多分 for a more general, informal “probably.”
恐らく (osoraku) vs. きっと (kitto)
恐らく means “probably,” indicating high probability. きっと means “surely,” “definitely,” indicating near certainty or the speaker’s strong conviction/hope.
When to use: Use 恐らく when you are making an objective assessment of likelihood. Use きっと when you are very confident or express a strong personal conviction that something will happen.
恐らく (osoraku) vs. ～はずだ (~hazu da)
恐らく expresses probability based on inference or general belief. ～はずだ indicates a strong expectation or certainty based on a specific reason, rule, or common sense, suggesting “it should be the case.”
When to use: Use 恐らく for a general high probability. Use ～はずだ when there is a specific, underlying reason that makes something highly expected or almost certain.

📝 Conjugation Notes

恐らく is an adverb and does not conjugate. It modifies the verb, adjective, or noun phrase that follows it.

🔊 Pronunciation Tips

The “く” (ku) at the end of 恐らく (osoraku) might be slightly de-voiced when spoken quickly, sounding more like “osora-k” rather than a fully pronounced “ku.” Emphasize the “o” and “ra” sounds.

🧠 Memory Tips

Think of 恐らく as “It’s _likely_ to be so, or I _fear_ it might be so (because the evidence points that way).” The kanji 恐 (おそ) means fear or dread, which can subtly connect to the feeling of a strong, almost unavoidable probability.

Vocabulary List
恐らく
osoraku
probably, likely
会議
kaigi
meeting, conference
間に合う
mania-u
to be in time for, to make it
プロジェクト
purojekuto
project
完了する
kanryō suru
to complete, to finish
渋滞
jūtai
traffic jam
約束
promise, appointment
Kanji List
恐
おそ (osoraku)
fear, dread, probably
会
かい (kaigi)
meeting, assembly
議
ぎ (kaigi)
deliberation, discussion
間
ま (mania-u)
interval, space, between
合
あう (mania-u)
to fit, to join
完
かん (kanryō)
complete, perfect
了
りょう (kanryō)
finish, end
渋
じゅう (jūtai)
traffic, stagnation
滞
たい (jūtai)
stagnation, delay
約
やく (yakusoku)
about, promise
束
そく (yakusoku)
bundle, promise
Practice Exercises
Choose the most appropriate word to fill in the blank: 天気予報によると、明日は（＿＿＿＿）雪が降るでしょう。
a) きっと
b) もしかしたら
c) 恐らく
d) 全く
Which of the following sentences expresses the highest certainty?
a) 恐らく彼は来るだろう。
b) 多分彼は来るだろう。
c) きっと彼は来るだろう。
d) もしかしたら彼は来るかもしれない。
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